Changes in influence?

Politicker has a couple of interesting articles covering the potential switch in Governorship:

Brewer will be the 5th Secretary of State to become Governor

McCain congratulates Napolitano on possible DHS offer

Speaking of Politicker, it will be interesting to see if they change their influence list. As we pointed out, there were 5 out of the top 10 who were Napolitano insiders. At the time, we said:

"It will be interesting to see if the top of this list changes after the November election. If the Governor is successful in her initiatives and her handpicked candidates win, you'd expect to see even more on the list. If Obama wins and she makes tracks for DC, you have to wonder if their influence will diminish."

Clearly, the Governor was not successful in her initiatives and her handpicked candidates did not win. It looks now like she is going to make tracks to take a spot in Obama's cabinet. What does that do of the influence of the people who were on her staff? What about the lobbyists on the list who used the Governor to get a leg up? As the Napolitano train leaves town, what becomes of their influence? Also, who's influence will increase with the ascension of Jan Brewer?

Governor Brewer?

The notion of Governor Jan Brewer has the local Democrats lamenting. Here is the initial fall-out from the news that Napolitano may be leaving:

Random Musings: I *really* hope that CNN is wrong on this one..

Man Eegee: This makes me physically ill.

Daniel's News and Views: Napolitano should say 'no, thanks' on DHS Secretary

RRR: Gack…Governor Brewer?

It's Official....sort of

Well, as we've been saying for a while now- Janet Napolitano will be cutting her stay in Arizona short in exchange for a chance to serve in the historic Obama administration.

CNN first broke the story that Janet will be named the new Secretary of Homeland Security. Her office and people are still being quiet about it but I'm sure we'll get full confirmation and all the juicy details shortly.

Janet's Choice: Will she settle for a showdown in 2010?

It looks like Holder has been tapped for AG. Some believe that he is being floated out to take the heat as the first Obama appointee paving an easier way for the others. However, the much more likely scenario is that the transition team has secured his place and the job is his.

Two former Clinton guys does not a change make, add Hillary Clinton to the mix as Secretary of State, and there may be some concern among his changelings. Napolitano and Richardson may help deflect some of these concerns.

However, the choice may have gotten more difficult for Janet. If she is willing to stay here and receive the concilitary note and JLBC report from Speaker-Elect Burns, she would be primed to take on McCain for the Senate Seat in 2010. We would certainly expect a lot of help from the Obama camp in that race, taking on his former opponent. If Janet can show she can also take on and beat the Republican Presidential Candidate in his own state, it may help her national cred.

Janet's Choice: Perhaps Homeland Security or Energy

It appears that Obama's push for Holder as Attorney General is gaining steam. Since we saw the report from MSNBC earlier today, the story has been picked up by several other news outlets:

Yahoo: Holder accepts Obama Justice offer: senior Democrat

NBC: Holder tagged for attorney general

CNN: Obama chooses Eric Holder to be Attorney General

Fox News: Eric Holder Being Vetted as Obama Attorney General

Now, the question is, can Holder withstand the Senate confirmation and his part in pardoning millionaire fugitive Marc Rich? They are likely letting this leak now so that there is time to vette the story through the media and allow his part in that scandal to be softened by the media's kind treatment of Obama and the inspirational story of the first African American Attorney General.

Where does this leave Napolitano? Its likely that she was aware of the pick, and her reaction over the next day or so will likely tell us if they have a different spot in mind for her within the Cabinet.

Janet's Choice: Are options cooling off?

Espresso Pundit suggests that the SNL treatment of Governor Napolitano combined with her reputation of not being a team player will hurt her chances of being appointed to Obama's cabinet.

Newsweek/MSNBC is also reporting that Eric Holder has the inside track for Attorney General in a story that fails to even mention Napolitano. Though she is still being bandied about as a name for Homeland Security.

However, here at home, Napolitano continues to foster change by appointing the 1st Hispanic for the top post in the Arizona National Guard and was able to receive some kudos for taking the time to engage the state budget problem.

It feels like a collective breath is being held across the state to see what will happen next.

Governor about to take some tough scrutiny

Napolitano is between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the reauthorization of ADEQ. She went out on a limb last year with efforts to increase emission standards and taking part in the Western Climate initiative. Now, ADEQ faces sunset at the legislature and they are taking their pound of flesh for her circumventing them last year.

Also, the Governor has offered up her suggestions to fix the budget gap including selling lottery revenue and pushing off agency expenses. It is reported that the spending suspensions could save up to $300 million, however, it does not appear that Napolitano has offered up any actual cuts. She is also banking on $50 million in revenue from the speed cameras, which comes out to the issuing of at least 277,777 speeding tickets (not including the cost Arizona is paying to the operators).

Combined with the impression of some that Napolitano is preparing her departure, it is likely that the scrutiny will only increase over the next few weeks.

Live from New York...

Governor Janet Napolitano has made it big - still no news about the Obama cabinet - but she was parodied on Saturday Night Live. Kristen Wiig came out during host Paul Rudd's monologue wearing a pantsuit and a wig with a gray patch. Rudd tried to convince the audience that the new parodies would be just as good as Fey's Palin impression.

We are still trying to find the video online for your own judgement, but Wiig has a good starting point on her Napolitano (ETA, you can see the video here). Napolitano should be flattered, at least she isn't being played by Will Ferrell like former Attorney General Janet Reno.

Musical Chairs - Goddard as Governor?

Sonoran Alliance is encouraging everyone to get familiar with Article 5, Section 6, of the Arizona Constitution so we can all follow along with the order of succession if Napolitano decides to leave. If she does decide to leave, Secretary of State Jan Brewer would become governor and she would then be able to name her replacement as Secretary of State. Though not limited to pick someone of her own party, one would assume that Brewer would appoint a Republican.

Former Congressman and radio host JD Hayworth offered up an interesting and much more convoluted scenario which would yield a very different result. You can listen for yourself by clicking on this link and then going to about the 10 minute mark.

He illustrates a scenario in which Senator John McCain would be offered a position in Obama's "postpartisan" cabinet. If McCain took it, Napolitano would then appoint a Republican to fill his seat. Napolitano could then pick Secretary of State Jan Brewer. Then Napolitano would then be free to leave to join the Obama administation elevating Attorney General Terry Goddard to Governor.

To expand on this, Goddard could then appoint whomever he wanted to AG and Secretary of State. One would assume he would elevate Democrats to both of those positions.

While highly unlikely, it is an interesting scenario. However, this would be predicated on the fact that McCain would be willing to go work for Obama (which seems doubtful) and that the Obama administration would want two high profile Arizonans on the Cabinet.