Mum's the word

"Seal up your lips and give no words but mum."

- Shakespeare in Henry VI, Part 2

The Battle of St. Albans that ends Henry VI part 2 appears to be a very fitting source for the quote for the current silence of Governor Napolitano on her future plans. In the first battle of St. Albans, was the first battle in the war of the roses. With the help of allies, the Duke of York defeated the Duke of Somerset and also caputured King Henry VI. York then appointed himself Constable of England and had complete power.

In the modern version, with the help of allies like Napolitano, Obama has vanquished his foe and captured complete power away from a failing leader. In both cases, the men were able to place who they wanted in positions of power. However, Obama gets to be the leader in title and in spirit, while Richard of York came close as protector of the realm, but never wore the crown. Richard's power and influence continued for many years, two of his sons served as king, Edward IV and Richard III. His great granddaughter is Margaret Tudor - the mother of the Tudor Dynasty.

We spread this wiki-knowledge to make a point about the far-reaching potential of Obama and his legacy. The fundamental question is: would it be better to bring the proclaimed "best and brightest" of the Dems to Washington to help bring his change, or should he leave them in their home states to try to build power locally?

Napolitano is the epitome of this conundrum. By all accounts, she is a rising star among the party and she has been popular at home. The Republic says that she has earned a spot, and for the most part, they have encouraged her to go to Washington. Tedski disagrees saying that she should stay and run for the Senate in 2010.

Which direction would give Obama a chance to turn his victory into a legacy?

Republic makes case for Napolitano

The Arizona Republic is now openly lobbying for a cabinet position for Janet Napolitano. In sort of a preemptive farewell, they have taken to touting her experience and the fact that she has earned a spot.

This type of lobbying doesn't usually happen on its own, nor does it make it into the paper without some sort of inkling of what is to come. Even the Boston Herald says that Napolitano has not committed to staying in Arizona. When a local story starts to gather a little bit of national attention and the home town newspaper is putting in a good word, more and more signs are pointing to her departure.

Especially with the Legislature going even more Republican and electing leaders that are less likely to cut a deal, the temptation to leave must be pretty great. Some are saying that its a done deal if she is offered Homeland Security or Attorney General.

Uniting the Republican Party?

Nathan Sproul, the guy behind mudslinging so heinous that Janet Napolitano defended Russell Pearce against it, is now looking for people to help him unite the Republican Party. Here is a copy of the email from Sonoran Alliance:

From: Nathan Sproul
Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2008 12:07 PM
To: ‘Tim J. Casey’; ‘Hugh Hallman’; ‘Sean Noble’; ‘Mike Haller’; ‘Kirk Adams’; ‘Lisa James’; ‘Andrew C. Pacheco’; ‘Jose Esparza’; ‘Jason LeVecke‘; ‘Cathi Herrod’; ‘Steve Voeller’; ‘Kevin Demenna’
Subject: Party Leadership

Friends,

I have spoken to or emailed many of you privately about my concerns for the future of our Party. Specifically, how does our Party in Arizona become a party that unites fiscal and social conservatives to put forward an agenda that moves Arizona in the right direction.

One of the most important aspects of this is electing a State Party Chairman who unites all factions of the Republican Party. I know this is extremely late notice, but I would like to invite each of you to join me for lunch at Monti’s on the corner of Rio Salado and Mill to discuss the future of our Party. I am paying for lunch, but as they say, there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Please let me know if your schedule permits you to attend. Thank you.

Nathan Sproul

Lincoln Strategy Group
80 East Rio Salado Parkway, Suite 814
Tempe, Arizona 85281
480-303-7175


Republican Party Chairman Randy Pullen's term is about to expire. After the very open and public chairman race that split the party last time around, it makes sense that Republicans would like to bring people together to try to make a smoother transition. However, its interesting that this effort would be driven by the people who did some of the nastiest attacks on fellow Republicans. Also, it should be noted, that his rump group doesn't include any of the people in the base who elected Pullen last time around. Here is the breakdown of the email list:

Tim J. Casey - Lawyer
Hugh Hallman - Mayor of Tempe
Sean Noble - Shadegg's Chief of Staff
Mike Haller - Flake Staffer
Kirk Adams - Speaker of the House
Lisa James - PR person and candidate for Chair in 2006
Andrew C. Pacheco - Lawyer, former AG candidate who lost to Thomas
Jose Esparza - Southwest Gas, Arizona Latino Republican Association
Jason LeVecke - Fast Food Franchiser, Patron of several of Sproul's failed initiatives
Cathi Herrod - Center for Arizona Policy
Steve Voeller - Arizona Free Enterprise Club
Kevin Demenna - Lobbyist

We understand that it is an open invitation to these people, but we do wonder if this is a group that has met before or if its a collection of like minded people. With Sproul's name being mud in the immigration debates, it would be interesting to see if Adams, Hallman, Shadegg or Flake are going to publicly support his efforts.

With a potential open Governor's seat in 2010, both parties want to be ready for a heated battle. The questions some Republicans are asking is if Sproul is the one who should lead the charge.

Consultants Gone Wild!!

It continues to be a bad month for Napolitano and those surrounding her. Espresso Pundit broke an excellent story yesterday about an email that politico (and former Janet appointed Deputy Director of the AZ Dept. of Commerce) Joe Yuhas sent to Rep. Kyrsten Sinema who finished second in her race along with her Dem colleague Rep. Lujan.

An email from a consultant to a legislative candidate isn’t something to normally post on…except when the email is confirmation of potentially illegal activity.

Sinema commented to Espresso Pundit that the email was unsolicited and was not followed up on or discussed further. It’s always interesting how these emails leak out and it causes one to question if this was the only one sent that day.

Regardless of whether this was isolated, there is the potential of illegal activity. Some would say it might be karma considering that at the time the email was sent there was talk of a potential Democrat swing in the House only to get to Election Day and lose 3 seats in the House and 1 in the Senate.

There are ways to “propel” people into leadership roles and breaking the law certainly isn’t one.

Here’s a copy of the email.
------ Forwarded Message
*From: *Joe Yuhas jyuhas@riester.com
*Date: *Wed, 29 Oct 2008 17:48:06 -0700
*To: *Kyrsten Sinema
*Conversation: *Legislative IEs
*Subject: *Legislative IEs

Knowing of your obvious interest in the legislative races around the state,
I want to CONFIDENTIALLY share with you an effort we're carrying out on
behalf of "Arizonans for a Healthy Economy"-the Professional Firefighters of
Arizona-led IE that involves a number of progressive organizations. Feel
free to pass on-but DISCREETLY-to colleagues you deem most appropriate.

Tim Hill and Bill Whitaker have done a great job here, and we have really
appreciated being a part of the effort. Of course, my *personal* hope is
that this also helps propel you and others into the leadership role we
desperately need.

These TV spots on running fairly heavy on cable TV systems across the state.
In Yuma, we're also on broadcast local stations.

To view the ads:
1. Go to www.YouTube.com
>
2. In the upper right corner, click on "Sign In"
a. Username is: az4he
b. Password is: firefighter (all lowercase)
3. Once you are logged in, on the upper right, click on "Account"
4. Click on "My Videos"
5. All videos will be available - they are titled by Legislative
District. Press play for each of the videos you would like to view.

Essentially, you will see the same ad-a "template" designed to reduce both
production costs and thereby limit the tripping of additional Clean Election
dollars for the opposition.

Feel free to call me if you have any questions
*
*
Joe Yuhas
*Partner and Executive Director - Public Affairs*
T: 602-462-2203
C: 602-410-3343
jyuhas@riester.com

Mending fences before she leaves??

Governor Napolitano, in what may be her last official act as Arizona Governor, has called a special lame duck session to address what she now admits is a $1.2 Billion hole in the budget.  

This isn't just a blip on the radar and it will be very interesting to watch how those legislators who are cleaning out their offices this week react.  Will they hold their allegiances now that there are few political ramifications?  

Contrary to what's being said, Janet's change of direction on the special session seems to be political given the fact that a few of her original budget supporters will not be back in January to be on her side.  The fact that she might not be here in January I'm sure also weighed heavily on her decision.  This somewhat frees her from the black cloud of massive budget shortfalls or the perception that she's leaving the state and the new legislature high and dry for greener pastures.  

2010 Watch

We're combing through the rumor mills, news stories, and blogs to give you the latest on the Governor's race in 2010.

With Napolitano named to Obama's transition team, the question remains on if she will stay in Arizona. While Dems fear a Brewer administration, there are questions on if Brewer would be a lock on the 2010 nomination with so many potential Republicans who want to throw their hat in the ring. Politicker has also put together their short list of possible candidates for Governor in 2010.

Here is their short list:

Democratic
Phil Gordon - Phoenix Mayor
Jim Pederson - Businessman
Harry Mitchell - Congressman
Terry Goddard - Attorney General
Johnny Basha - Businessman

Republican
Jan Brewer - Secretary of State
Mary Peters - U.S. Secretary of Transportation
John Shadegg - Congressman
Andrew Thomas - Maricopa County Attorney
JD Hayworth - Former Congressman
Dean Martin - State Treasurer
John Munger - Tucson lawyer and former GOP Chairman

Currently, the only one who appears to be missing from the Politicker list is Sheriff Joe Arpaio who will probably make his regular flirt with the office, especially after holding off a tough competitor and winning handily. He may ride his "this not my last campaign" as far as it will go.

If you have any juicy gossip or more information, please let us know at GovRace2010@yahoo.com.

Napolitano on Obama Transition team - speculation begins

In the day after the election, Governor Napolitano has been named to President-Elect Barack Obama's transition team. And as we have mentioned before, the speculation has already started. Over the next few weeks, we'll be treated to the will she, won't she - Ross and Rachel type talk.

With a billion dollar shortfall looming at home and a chance to get in on the ground floor of the ballsy-named Change.gov administration, the indicators don't appear to be good for Janet fans here at home. We have reports stating that she is saying that she will be staying put. However, it would seem foolish for her not to jump at the AG or Homeland Security post if it were offered to her.

More bumps in the road for the Governor's team

While there is definite celebration by Democrats nationally, there was not as much to cheer for here at home in Arizona. It was speculated that the Governor's decisive vistory in 2006 and the larger turnout for Obama would allow Democrats to make some major headway in Arizona. So far, its not looking so good for Team Napolitano.

First, her hand picked candidate for Maricopa County Attorney General, Tim Nelson, was beaten out by Andrew Thomas by a 51.6% to 44.1% margin.

Second, bolstered by warnings from some Republicans about the Democrats' chances, they had a strategy to focus a lot of money on "swing" districts in an attempt to get a majority in the State House. Long story short, their effort fell flat and the Republicans appear to be poised to gain back a couple of seats that were lost after 2006.

Third, a week or two before the election, Napolitano's popularity along with democratic efforts to drive turnout were supposed to be able to make Arizona competitive. In fact, a week before the election, Obama and McCain were supposed to be neck and neck - thus, embarassing Senator McCain and boosting Dem's chances of taking the Senate seat in 2010. McCain was able to take Arizona with a 53.7% to 45.1% spread - gathering 1,012,878 votes in 2008 to the 959,830 that Napolitano got in 2006. That's more than 53,000 more votes than Napolitano in her landslide victory.

Finally, Prop 101, the healthcare initiative she decided to take on after the failure of her transportation and state trust land initiatives failed, is still too close to call. To her credit, it looks like her wish might come true and the initiative may meet narrow defeat despite the missteps of her No campaign.

All in all, the boldness and the scope and depth of these plans should certainly be commended. However, it doesn't look like the efforts combined with the failed primary efforts to secure moderate Republicans has succeeded.

Will she stay or will she go?

Election Day is finally here. Recent surveys and other indicators (270towin.com already calling the race for Obama according to their map) show that Obama is likely the next President of the United States. So, then the question really becomes "Does Governor Napolitano stay or does she go?"

Team Napolitano's hype machine has fired back up giving her credit for putting the Dems before the Republicans on the ballot this year. They are also setting her up as a major factor in swing districts such as District 12 the day before the election. Is this to make sure that she leaves on a high note, or is it an attempt to build her clout for a Senate run in 2010?

Though she was skipped in Obama's infomercial, she has been out stumping for him across the country and is still on the cabinet list. She is also being hailed as a winner in this election because she was an early Obama supporter and helped bolster his campaign and help it gain credibility.

Anyway, on the day of one of the biggest elections in modern history, the Presidency will likely be decided, but it will most likely create murkiness here in Arizona.