Beltway view of 2010 race

Great link from Espresso Pundit to an analysis from inside the beltway on the upcoming races in Arizona. Here is assessment of the Governors race:

Governor – Janet Napolitano (D)

1998: Gov. Jane Hull (R) 61%, Paul Johnson (D) 36%
2002: Janet Napolitano (D) 46%, Matt Salmon (R) 45%
2006: Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) 63%, Len Munsil (R) 35%

Governor Napolitano cannot seek a third term in 2010. Representative Gabrielle Giffords, considered a rising Democratic star, may seek to replace her, as may state Attorney General Terry Goddard. Arizona Secretary of State Jan Brewer and U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary Peters have expressed interest for the Republicans. It is way too early to speculate as to outcome, but that’s what we do here. Based on Napolitano’s popularity, Arizona’s Democratic trend, and the quality of potential Democratic candidates, I’d have to rate the Dems as slight favorites to hold. We will watch to see how it plays out.

It is definately an interesting analysis and he goes on to talk about the trend that Arizona has going towards electing more Democrats. Clearly, Napolitano is popular. However, it should be noted that there are more Republicans holding statewide office right now than Democrats and the entire corporation commission is Republican.

The race is too close to call on who the favorite will be based solely on party. Its not going to be enough of an indicator. Plus, this doesn't take into account if Obama wins and Napolitano decides to leave early and what that would do to the power structure in Arizona. That is something else to consider.