Future of GOP Legislature may depend on outcome of budget

Could these protracted budget discussions and the deep cuts to education place the Republican hold on the legislature at risk? Several indicators point to this potential conclusion.

First of all, the Republican advantage is shrinking. According to the latest voter registration stats, more than 100,000 people have registered to vote since last year’s election. The GOP posted the smallest percentage gain, up 1.7 percent, while the Democrats were up 2.3 percent. Independents, meanwhile, jumped 6.8 percent from November to April 1, making them the third-largest voting group, not so very far behind Republicans and Democrats.

Looking at the Clean Elections’ List of Party Dominate Districts, you can see that the Democrats have been able to achieve splits in two Republican dominant districts, while the Republicans have only been able to achieve the same feat in one. Review for yourself:

Republican Dominant:

1 – Advantage: 20,653
Senate: R
House: 2R

3 – Advantage: 15,859
Senate: R
House: 2R

4 – Advantage: 32,138
Senate: R
House: 2R

6 – Advantage: 16,744
Senate: R
House: 2R

7 – Advantage: 20,665
Senate: R
House: 2R

8 – Advantage: 27,099
Senate: R
House: 2R

9 – Advantage: 11,883
Senate: R
House: 2R

11 – Advantage: 14,047
Senate: R
House: Split

18 – Advantage: 9,585
Senate: R
House: 2R

19 – Advantage: 23,031
Senate: R
House: 2R

20 – Advantage: 11,253
Senate: R
House: Split

21 – Advantage: 19,925
Senate: R
House: 2R

22 – Advantage: 30,260
Senate: R
House: 2R

30 – Advantage: 17,387
Senate: R
House: 2R

Democrat Dominant:

2 – Advantage: 38,051
Senate: D
House: 2D

13 – Advantage: 11,457
Senate: D
House: 2D

14 – Advantage: 8,870
Senate: D
House: 2D

15 – Advantage: 9,050
Senate: D
House: 2D

16 – Advantage: 23,145
Senate: D
House: 2D

25 – Advantage: 9,387
Senate: D
House: Split

27 – Advantage: 23,376
Senate: D
House: 2D

28 – Advantage: 15,387
Senate: D
House: 2D

29 – Advantage: 15,431
Senate: D
House: 2D

Competitive Districts:

5 – Advantage: 1,606 (Dem)
Senate: R
House: Split

10 – Advantage: 2,835 (Rep)
Senate: R
House: 2R

12 – Advantage: 6,334 (Rep)
Senate: R
House: 2R

17 – Advantage: 771 (Rep)
Senate: D
House: 2D

23 – Advantage: 8,123 (Dem)
Senate: D
House: Split

24 – Advantage: 3,785 (Dem)
Senate: D
House: Split

26 – Advantage: 9,527 (Rep)
Senate: R
House: Split


Republican leadership, hailing from dominant districts, are pushing against the Governor’s Five point plan and opting for a plan heavy on cuts to balance the current budget deficit. Those from less secure districts appear to be considering more options – a notion that has landed many of them on Sonoran Alliance’s most wanted list.

Their choices during these current budget negotiations could have a tremendous impact on their ability to continue to serve in the legislature and the Republican’s ability to continue to hold both houses.

At first blush, it looks like Republicans may be risking up to 8 seats in the Senate and 5 seats in the House:

Senate

District 5 – (Currently held by Senator Sylvia Allen) Although held by Republican, this competitive district currently holds a slight Democrat advantage.

District 6 – (Currently held by Jim Waring) Waring is term-limited. A protracted fight between Barto and Barnes in the primary could open the door for a Democrat to take the seat.

District 8 – (Currently held by Carolyn Allen) Allen is also term-limited. As a moderate, she has attracted a lot of negative attention from the conservatives who will likely field a candidate who may have success in the primary, but a challenge in the general.

District 10 – (Currently held by Linda Gray) District 10 is a contested district with a mere 2,800 Republican vote advantage and nearly 17,000 registered independent or other. Democrats have tried for several years to target Weiers, with him out of the speakership, do they turn their sights to the Senate seat? How independents view the budget cuts could make a large impact on this race.

District 11 – (Currently held by Barbara Leff) While a Republican dominated District, the Democrats in 11 have been successful in fielding candidates that can overcome the disadvantage. With Leff term-limited, there could be a battle for the Republican nomination and Dr. Meyer waiting in the wings who became the first write-in ever to qualify for clean elections funding.

District 12 – (Currently held by John Nelson) In 2008, the Republicans were able to withstand a barrage from Democrats and hold on to the seat. Will the more moderate Nelson make an attempt to come back to the House? Will the Democrats try again with a full assault? How would the cuts to education play in the 34,000 registered independents and others?

District 26 – (Currently held by Al Melvin) Although Republicans have a 9,500 voter registration advantage, Democrats have performed splitting the house seats and winning the Senate seat in 2006. Melvin was successful in his second attempt, but won by 1966 votes. Given the leanings of Southern Arizona, some of the budget cuts may hurt Melvin’s chances.

District 30 – (Currently held by Jonathan Paton) Does Paton leave to vie for a statewide position leaving a messy primary? If he stays, he has already shown his willingness to buck the system to support university funding and other things important to southern Arizona. The deal could create vulnerability.

House

District 5 – (Currently held by Jack Brown and Bill Konopnicki) The current seats are split, but as in the Senate race, this competitive district currently holds a slight Democrat advantage. With Konopnicki term limited, it will be open season for the seat.

District 10 – (Currently held by Jim Weiers and Doug Quelland) As we mentioned earlier, District 10 is a contested district with a mere 2,800 Republican vote advantage and nearly 17,000 registered independent or other. Will the Dems take their annual shot at Weiers? Will Quelland be able to resolve his campaign finance woes? Again, how independents view the budget cuts could make a large impact on this race.

District 12 – (Currently held by Jerry Weiers and Steve Montenegro) Will the Democrats field two candidates once again or perhaps try fielding a single candidate to improve their chances? Would Nelson come back, splitting the Weiers/Montenegro team?

District 23 – (Currently held by Barbara McGuire and Frank Pratt) This contested district has split representation in the House, but also has an 8,000 Democrat registration advantage. As a freshman legislator in a session where little will be done, does Pratt survive an effort to bring in a second Democrat?

District 24 – (Currently held by Russell Jones and Lynne Pancrazi) Again, this contested district has split representation in the House, but also has a nearly 3,800 Democrat registration advantage. How the cuts impact Yuma and the surrounding area could impact Jones who survived a fraud investigation last year to win second place, beating out the second Democrat by 2,430 votes.

Only time will tell how the budget may impact these races, but it is important to note that there is vulnerability that could be exposed. Is Republican leadership pondering these 8 seats in the Senate and 5 seats in the House as they create their budget plans?